2020 United States presidential election (Rubio '16)

From Alternate History
Jump to navigation Jump to search
2016 United States presidential election

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →

538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
Turnout 60.1% Increase 4.4 pp

Nominee Marco Rubio Elizabeth Warren
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Massachusetts
Running mate Nikki Haley Julian Castro
Electoral vote 392 146
States carried 40 10 + DC + ME-01
Popular vote 79,944,497 65,521,978
Percentage 54.1% 44.3%

Presidential election results map. Red denotes states won by Rubio/Haley, blue denotes those won by Warren/Castro.

President before election

Marco Rubio

Elected President

Marco Rubio

The 2020 United States presidential election was the 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Incumbent Republican President Marco Rubio and his running mate, Vice President Nikki Haley, were reelected to a second term, defeating the Democratic ticket of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and former HUD Secretary and mayor of San Antonio Julian Castro. This election saw the highest voter turnout since 1968 and President Rubio, who previously received the highest popular vote total for any presidential candidate, surpassed his 2016 total and won nearly 80 million votes.

As the incumbent, President Marco Rubio faced no serious opposition in the Republican primary. The Democratic primary had over a dozen contenders. Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders were considered by most political observers as the front-runners, however both declined to run, leaving the field wide open. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren managed to clear the competitive primary and bested her biggest rival, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker. Warren selected Secretary Julian Castro of Texas, a 2020 candidate himself, as her running mate. Jo Jorgensen secured the Libertarian nomination with Spike Cohen as her running mate, and Howie Hawkins secured the Green nomination with Angela Nicole Walker as his running mate. Central issues of the election included the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic; civil unrest in reaction to the police murder of George Floyd; the U.S. Supreme Court following the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg; and the future of the Affordable Care Act.

Rubio, who had been favored to win the election, centered his campaign around ending the pandemic and touting the pre-pandemic economic growth, as well as taking a "level headed" approach to criminal justice reform. Warren focused on mistakes made by the Rubio administration regarding the pandemic, promoting universal healthcare, expanding gun control, and expansive criminal justice reform. The Rubio campaign portrayed Warren and Castro as extremists, tying them to controversial Democrats (namely Ilhan Omar) and accused them of holding radical beliefs. The Warren campaign, on the other hand, attacked Rubio's economic policies as examples of trickle-down economics and comparing his policies to former Republican President George W. Bush. Due to the pandemic, both campaigns made heavy usage of virtual campaigning via the internet and social media platforms, and hosting "drive-in" rallies in the summer and fall of the campaign.

Rubio secured the largest popular vote victory since Ronald Reagan's landslide victory in 1984 and the largest electoral college victory since George H. W. Bush's victory in 1988. Rubio became the first Republican to win Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, and New Jersey since 1988, and the first to win Minnesota since 1972, ending its nearly half-century Democratic voting streak. Rubio also became the first Republican since Reagan to win a majority of the popular vote twice. Rubio's large popular vote win has been attributed to his growth across all racial groups, winning both the Hispanic vote (55%) and the Asian vote (52%).


2020 Republican Party ticket
Marco Rubio Nikki Haley
for President for Vice President
45th President of the United States
48th Vice President of the United States


Close states

Margin under 1%

  1. Oregon – 0.09% – 7 electoral votes
  2. Illinois – 0.72% – 20 electoral votes

Margin between 1% and 5%

  1. Maine – 1.65% – 2 electoral votes*
  2. Connecticut – 2.13% – 7 electoral votes
  3. Maine's 1st congressional district – 3.05% – 1 electoral vote
  4. Delaware – 3.81% – 3 electoral votes
  5. New Jersey – 4.30% – 14 electoral votes
  6. Washington – 4.77% – 12 electoral votes
  7. Michigan – 4.95% – 16 electoral votes

Margin between 5% and 10%

  1. Minnesota – 6.31% – 10 electoral votes
  2. Colorado – 7.02% – 9 electoral votes
  3. California – 7.09% – 55 electoral votes
  4. Wisconsin – 7.23% – 10 electoral votes
  5. Pennsylvania – 8.17% – 20 electoral votes
  6. New Hampshire – 8.44% – 4 electoral votes
  7. Virginia – 8.91% – 13 electoral votes
  8. Maine's 2nd congressional district – 9.54% – 1 electoral vote
  9. New Mexico – 10.63% – 5 electoral votes (tipping point state)